Daily Archives: June 3, 2009

IPCC AR4 projections and observations, part 1

AR4 SmoothIn the past year or so, the blogosphere has been full of claims concerning short-term global temperature trends and their supposed falsification of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming as set forth in the IPCC Fourth Assesment Report (AR4). In this post, I’ll present a comparison of the AR4 near-term projection to smoothed observed trends. This comparison shows the recent observed trend to be somewhat below the projection, but still well within a reasonable confidence interval.

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